2015
Last year the United States mined tungsten commercially
[2]
The Market
The Metal The West
Cannot Buy
One country mines most of it. China controls exports of selected tungsten products, and U.S. defence procurement restrictions extend to the mining and feedstock stages for covered tungsten materials on 1 January 2027, subject to statutory exceptions.
[2][11][24][1]Map: estimated 2024 mine production; published in the 2025 report. The 82.7% shown is 67,000 / 81,000.The metal
Nothing else does what tungsten does
Tungsten has the highest melting point of any metal. The Royal Society of Chemistry lists 3,414 degrees Celsius and a density of 19.3 grams per cubic centimetre. Its density and heat resistance make it useful in demanding industrial and defence applications.[7][3]
Cemented carbides account for nearly two-thirds of global first-use demand, according to S&P Global. Tungsten is used in cutting tools, drill bits and wear-resistant components, as well as steels, alloys, electrical applications, semiconductor interconnects and defence components.[3][2]
Substitution is difficult in cemented carbides and high-performance applications, but alternatives exist for some uses. USGS notes that substitution may increase costs or reduce performance; it identifies several alternatives for specific applications rather than a single universal substitute.[2][3]
Where it comes from
One country mines most of it
USGS estimates China mined 67,000 of the 85,000 tonnes produced worldwide in 2025 and ranked first in tungsten resources and reserves. S&P Global estimates China accounted for about 85 percent of APT refining capacity.[2][3]
The United States has not mined tungsten commercially since 2015 and imports more than half of what it uses, according to USGS. Cantung stopped mining operations in Canada in 2015 and remains in care and maintenance.[2][27]
How the supply closed
February 2025
China places tungsten under export licensing.[2]
December 2025
Fifteen companies are approved to export tungsten in 2026 and 2027. Export controls continue to apply to controlled products.[24]
January 2026
China prohibits dual-use exports to Japanese military users, military uses and other uses that enhance Japan's military capabilities.[25]
January to May 2026
Chinese APT exports to the world: two tonnes. April: zero.[5]
July 2026
Zimbabwe suspends every tungsten export in every form.[26]
What it costs
A price that has left its own history
European APT rose from approximately US$331 per metric tonne unit at the start of 2025 to US$2,900 to US$3,000 in September 2026. In 2026 alone the rise is 220.7 percent. A metric tonne unit is 10 kilograms of tungsten trioxide. One tonne of rock grading 1 percent WO₃ contains exactly one metric tonne unit.[2][4]
Chinese domestic and export APT prices have diverged. Fastmarkets reported domestic Chinese prices of about US$1,200 to US$1,300 per mtu during June 2026, versus US$2,900 to US$3,210 in its 19 June Rotterdam/Baltimore assessment. These are dated assessments, not live prices.[6]
European marketUS$2,950[2][4]US$2,950 is the midpoint of the reported US$2,900–3,000/mtu range. Two dated reference points, not a price history.
Chinese domesticLower domestic prices[6]June 2026 assessment; not a same-date September comparison.
The gap
Demand rises, and the years cannot be bought
S&P Global projects global first-use tungsten demand rising from approximately 162,000 tonnes WO₃ in 2025 to 180,000 tonnes in 2030 and 202,000 tonnes in 2035. Cemented carbides are expected to drive most of the increase, with aerospace, defence and semiconductors providing smaller but strategically important sources of demand.[3]
S&P Global identifies eleven projects outside China that could add nearly 20,000 tonnes WO₃ of mine capacity by 2030, bringing ex-China mine capacity to about 34,000 tonnes. Its supply-demand scenario projects a gap of about 16,000 tonnes WO₃ in 2030, net of recycling and assuming announced projects arrive as planned. Forecasts are not guarantees.[3]
S&P Global's structural-cost model estimates that US$90 per kilogram WO₃ could support all identified projects in its pipeline; that is not a financing commitment or a guarantee that projects will be built. Separate S&P studies put average discovery-to-production lead times at about 16 years globally and 29 years in the United States. These are multi-commodity studies, not forecasts for Allegiance's projects.[3][28][29]
Projected world demand
- 2025Tonnes WO₃
- 162,000 t[3]Estimated first-use demand.
- 2030Tonnes WO₃
- 180,000 t[3]Projected first-use demand.
- 2035Tonnes WO₃
- 202,000 t[3]Projected first-use demand.
Potential ex-China capacity, 2030
- Ex-China mine capacity if projects arrive as planned
- 34,000 t[3]Capacity scenario, tonnes WO₃; not actual production. APT refining can also use recycled feedstock.
- Announced projects: potential additional mine capacity
- 20,000 t[3]Capacity scenario, tonnes WO₃; not actual production. APT refining can also use recycled feedstock.
16,000 t
Projected 2030 ex-China supply gap, tonnes WO₃, net of recycling
[3]S&P scenario excludes China, Russia, North Korea and majority Chinese-owned assets. Project timing and ramp-up are uncertain.The deadline
1 January 2027
From that date, DFARS extends restrictions on covered tungsten metal powder and heavy alloy to the mining and feedstock stages, including recycled material, for covered countries. Statutory exceptions and nonavailability provisions apply.[11][12]
The Department of Defense has funded tungsten projects under the Defense Production Act in Canada and Nevada.[2]
The Export-Import Bank has issued non-binding letters of interest for tungsten projects, including Hemerdon in the United Kingdom, Mt Carbine in Australia and projects in Kazakhstan. Letters of interest are not committed financing.[3][5]
Governments are supporting critical mineral supply through funding programs and agreements. The cited announcements are not funding awards to Allegiance.[16][21]
DFARS restriction
From 1 January 2027, restrictions on covered tungsten metal powder and heavy alloy extend from mining or feedstock, including recycled material, through powder production in covered countries. Exceptions and nonavailability determinations apply under DFARS 225.7018-3 and 225.7018-4.
[11][12]20 July 2026
Directs stronger domestic and allied defence supply chains, limits certain waivers from 1 January 2027, and directs supply-chain mapping. Covered materials are defined through 10 U.S.C. 4872, including tungsten metal powder and heavy alloy.
[13][12]Proven Tungsten on a District Scale
Four projects across British Columbia and Nevada, explored by six mining companies and every one found tungsten.
[30][32][34][35]